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中國為什麼要征服台灣？
歐編
17 8 月, 2022
8:00 下午
181

Pourquoi la Chine veut conquérir Taïwan

作者：加里-達戈恩

中國對台灣的威脅對北京來說，既是將該島納入其威權範圍的機會，也是瓦解美國在該地區聯盟的機會。

北京在必要時以武力征服台灣的計劃有幾個歷史、戰略和地緣政治的原因。

尋求治理所有講中文的人 （Chercher à gouverner tous les sinophones）

主要原因是，1949年獲得中國大陸控制權的中國共產黨政權從不願意承認中華民國在內戰中倖存下來，並在早期就否認了其在台灣的統治合法性。「1934年，毛澤東宣佈台灣獨立。是什麼讓他突然贊成在1949年 “解放 “它？」總部設在台北的法國當代中國研究中心的漢學家和研究員斯特凡-科庫夫（Stéphane Corcuff）解釋說：「原因很簡單：中華民國並沒有消失。」

中國共產黨（CCP）認為 “台灣問題 “是內部事務，不承認對其從未控制過的領土有任何外部干涉。「中國透過談論 “統一 “來宣稱對台灣的主權，而這個詞是完全不合適的，因為台灣從來都不是中國的。」國際和戰略關係研究所（IRIS）副研究員兼印度-太平洋地緣政治觀察站主任瑪麗安-佩隆-多伊茲強調說：「不會有（和平）’統一’，而是武力（侵略）”統一”。該島在17世紀末才被清朝部分征服，清朝的滿族統治期間，中國人佔據了政治和社會的低端地位。在1895年被日本人吞併之前，它在這個滿清帝國的統治下（這不是中國的統治）保持了兩個世紀，然後在1945年日本帝國投降後，重新融入中華民國。」

在Stéphane Corcuff看來，北京目前的主張是 “一種中國的領土分割主義，其目的不是為了讓台灣與中國’統一’，而是為了吞併一個主權國家”，是基於歷史、種族或語言的理由。

但北京的動機不僅是政治上的，也是地緣政治和戰略上的。

撤銷美國的 "第一島鏈 "聯盟（Défaire les alliances américaines de la « première chaîne d’îles »）

2022年的中國與1949年底的年輕共產主義中國沒有什麼關係。在20世紀下半葉，其驚人的經濟發展使其能夠宣稱自己是一個超級大國，並與美國展開競爭。

但是，東海和南海地區的地理環境以及其鄰國的同盟關係挫敗了其霸權主義野心。中國14,000公里的海岸線面對的是所謂的 “第一島鏈”。法國國際關係研究所亞洲中心中國活動負責人馬克-朱利安說：「北京在某種程度上被限制在中國海域，它不能自由進入太平洋，因為它面對的是這一連串的島嶼，這些國家與它有著相對敵對的關係。」

這第一個島鏈由四個與美國結盟的國家組成：韓國、日本、菲律賓和台灣。前三個國家分別與美國人簽訂了共同防禦條約，提供了這些國家認為至關重要的安全保障。韓國擁有兩個美國海軍空軍基地，日本擁有六個。自2014年以來，一項安全協議還為美國空軍在菲律賓提供了五個支持點。

第二條鏈由北馬里亞納群島—美國重要的關島海軍基地所在地—、帕勞（以前由美國管理的領土）和日本的小笠原群島構成。

軍事吞併台灣的目的和後果之一是大大削弱美國在該地區的存在，並宣稱中國的主導地位。

由於其中心位置，”台灣是中國在太平洋上的一種鎖”，馬克-朱利安解釋說：「中國尋求瓦解美國在該地區的聯盟網絡。目標是讓中國軍隊能夠通過拒絕進入的戰術阻止美國干預該地區，這將使美國人更難接近中國和台灣。而當美國不再有能力保衛日本時，這個聯盟將不再成立。」

國防部一位消息靈通人士評論說，美國作為該地區安全保障者的這種可能消失 「將是一個戰略轉折點。」「存在著為韓國和可能的日本等國家的更廣泛的核擴散開路的真正風險，」該消息人士在匿名的情況下說。「如果這兩個國家不能再依賴美國的核保護傘，它們可能會尋求發展自己的威懾力以確保其安全。」

Marianne Péron-Doise說，「中國不會成功撤銷日本、韓國和美國之間的這些安全條約」。「他們將保留最低限度的建立信任措施，但我們無法想象中國可以取代這些安全保障。」

延長其核潛艇的航程（Elargir la portée de ses sous-marins nucléaires）

北京的另一個潛在目標涉及其核威懾力，特別是其海洋部分，因為一些地理因素限制了中國彈道導彈潛艇（SSBN）的機動性。

目前由兩個島鏈組成的網路使美國盟友很容易發現可能想要進入太平洋的中國潛艇。馬克-朱利安說：「日本人、美國人和台灣人擁有非常好的反潛戰能力，能夠追蹤這種潛艇。」

但最重要的是，南海和東海的商業交通和淺水區非常繁忙。四分之三的東海水深不足200米，這不足以讓中國潛艇稀釋（即潛水）和謹慎地進行機動而不被 “聽到”。”SSBNs被限制在中國南海海南島周圍的空間。因為它們的範圍有限，所以無法到達美國本土。國防部的同一消息來源證實：”中國人不得不依靠他們的地對地彈道導彈，這種導彈從本質上講比潛艇更容易受到攻擊，因為潛艇更容易隱藏。

台灣的優勢是可以直接進入其東海岸的深海。”這將是中國建立一個新的SSBN基地並接近美國海岸的機會。對美國來說，這將是一個直接的威脅，”馬克-朱利安認為。

加強其他領土和海洋主張（Renforcer d’autres revendications territoriales et maritimes）

征服台灣將有助於實現北京的其他目標，如其眾多的領土和海洋主張。

Marianne Péron-Doise說：「台灣海峽的問題必須放在中國海洋力量的全球擴張的背景下看待。透過控制台灣，中國可以擴大其專屬經濟區並對航運施加限制。雖然眼前的利益是外國軍艦，但擴大主權區也會讓中國在商船方面有發言權—這是一個向鄰國施壓或促進其利益的有力槓桿。」

台灣海峽是中國希望完全控制的海域之一，儘管它的一部分是自由開放的國際水域。北京控制中國南海和東海之間這條主要貿易路線的前景令韓國和日本感到擔憂，它們的經濟嚴重依賴進口。

這樣做的目的也是為了支持中國在南海的主張，北京正試圖在南海確立自己的地位，這對海洋法及其鄰國是不利的。爭端主要涉及兩個群島：位於中國南部國際水域的西沙群島，以及位於越南、馬來西亞和菲律賓之間的南沙群島，儘管其海岸線遙遠，但中國政府堅定地聲稱擁有該群島。

攻佔台灣甚至可能重新引發關於尖閣群島（台稱釣魚島）的爭端，尖閣群島是一個無人居住的日本群島，離台灣東海岸不遠。”馬克-朱利安說：「中國人試圖在該地區使日本人屈服並非不可能，這似乎是日本當局非常關注的問題。」

控制台灣令人垂涎的半導體市場（Contrôler le marché convoité des semi-conducteurs de Taïwan）

最後，佔領台灣還將使北京政權控制台灣的半導體產業，該產業佔世界產量的很大一部分（63%）。這些部件是製造高科技產品（電話、飛機、太陽能電池板等）所必需的，對世界經濟至關重要。

最先進的半導體主要由台灣半導體製造公司（TSMC）製造。掌握這個行業將是一個不可否認的收益，但不能確定北京是否能輕易利用它。台積電本身依賴進口原材料，特別是來自日本和德國的原材料，如果中國政府試圖破壞其穩定，它們可能決定減少或停止銷售。

台灣對北京來說有許多戰略意義。”[中國國家主席]習近平有一種霸權主義的野心。Marianne Péron-Doise認為：「這不再是一個制衡美國的問題，而是與美國人展開競爭的問題，在中國的話語中，美國人一直被視為亞洲以外的力量。而台灣是中國 “復興 “的一個主要障礙，這就提出了潛在的武裝衝突問題。」

原文：Le Monde

輔譯：DeepL.com

Category : 台灣相關 政治新聞 法文媒體

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    «Професіонали нашої компанії також можуть створити індивідуальний інвестиційний портфель, з урахуванням Ваших побажань. Він буде доповнений фінансовими інструментами, які допоможуть швидше досягти поставлених цілей. Щоб гроші почали працювати на Вас, покладайтеся на професіоналів!»;
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    Рекламу «ISRAEL INVESTMENTS LTD» аналітики виявили на багатьох популярних інформаційних ресурсах у мережі інтернет, у соціальних мережах. Відповідно до інформації з сайту, «ISRAEL INVESTMENTS LTD» має представництва в Ізраїлі, Англії, Італії, Швейцарії, та Україні.
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    Послуги забезпечення діяльності домену надаються компанією «101domain», яка зареєстрована в США, і також надає своїм клієнтам можливість приховати інформацію про них у загальнодоступних Інтернет джерелах.
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  180. Hello Members,

    I wonder how to reach the consciousness of the Russians and make them realize that every day in Ukraine RUSSIAN SOLDIERS DIE and military equipment is being destroyed on a mass scale. Why destroy and demolish when you can build and create a new, better world.
    WAR is suffering, crying, sadness and death, do you have any ideas to convince Russians that Vladimir Putin should retire, bask in the sun somewhere in warm countries and end this bloody conflict in Europe.

    It is a great idea to select random companies from Russia on Google business cards and add opinions about anti-war content and make people in the country aware that Putin is doing wrong.

    Please take a moment to select a random company on the Google map and add your opinion about anti-war content.

    It is also worth informing Russians about the possibility of VPN connections because Russia is blocking a lot of content on the Internet and sowing sinister propaganda by not giving people access to real information

    Peace be with you!
    Thank you
    Tomasz Jerzy Michałowski
    Poland

  181. Examples of Aphorism in Literature
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    It’s one of the most recognized aphoristic statements today.
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